4: Final level of data validation FMVA Required 2.5h Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis in Excel . [79] Under the other standards used in the study, Bush's margin of victory increased as looser standards were used. 2A). The large negative sentiment and economic pressures this year have been affecting JPM and the larger financial markets. The Monte Carlo simulation was ran through 5,000 iterations and the results show that a forecasted median and mean (5.35% and 5.44%) dividend growth rate can be expected into the future. Figure 8. The court ruled that counties had that authority and to allow time for these efforts, extended the statutory deadline for the manual recounts. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be At an NAACP-sponsored hearing in Miami four days after the election, prospective voters told of police cars blocking the way to the polls, of voters harassed by election workers. JPM is currently trading at a "Buy" range for long-term focused dividend investors. The intent of this article is to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors. [4], An analysis of the NORC data by University of Pennsylvania researcher Steven F. Freeman and journalist Joel Bleifuss concluded that, no matter what standard is used, after a recount of all uncounted votes, Gore would have been the victor. Our goal at Six-Five Research is to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative analysis into better investment decisions. The median is chosen because in distributions with large skews like this, it is a better representation of the truer middle. They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. Sensitivity analyses play a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings or conclusions based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials. Example 2: If an investor utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation from the Scenario 1 results and expects a median growth rate of 3.16% (rounded down to 3%, blue row), then the current pricing of JPM would allow for almost a 7% return for perpetuity. The Gore campaign requested that disputed ballots in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Volusia Counties be counted by hand. Scenario analysis is sometimes confused with sensitivity analysis. It is important to observe these historical trends and note that the business of JPM has altered and developed over this representation of time. Ballots received after deadline, lacking required postmarks, unsigned, undated, cast after election day, from unregistered voters or voters not requesting ballots, lacking witness signature or address, or double-counted. [76], The NORC was expecting 176,446 uncounted ballots to be available from Florida's counties, based on county precinct reports that produced the final, state-certified vote totals. A larger consortium of news organizations, including USA Today, The Miami Herald, Knight Ridder, The Tampa Tribune, and five other newspapers next conducted a full recount of all machine-rejected ballots, including both undervotes and overvotes. It was instead a painful reminder of the days when the battle for the ballot was, literally, a life-and-death matter. USA Today, The Miami Herald, and Knight Ridder commissioned accounting firm BDO Seidman to count undervotes. Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. [78] The post-controversy recounts revealed that, "if a manual recount had been limited to undervotes, it would have produced an inaccurate picture of the electorate's position."[4]. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. Bush led the election-night vote count in Florida by 1,784 votes. Asked how many votes he would guess Buchanan legitimately received in Palm Beach County, he said, "I think 1,000 would be generous. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. Eventually, the Gore campaign appealed to the Florida Supreme Court, which ordered the recount to proceed. They argue that American democracy is a far stricter, Lockean, Anglo-American system based on the letter of the law and a successful vote cast by a rational, responsible voter. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Undervotes from optical-scan counties, however, correlate with Democratic votes more than Republican votes, and in particular to counties that scanned ballots at a central location rather than at precinct locations. The only exception: African-Americans. Figure 5. Possible reasons include, but are not limited to, ambient humidity, feeder misalignment and scanner light sensitivity. In punchcard counties, 1 in 25 ballots had uncountable presidential votes. Figure 9. A good representation of the issues with this variance is the difference between the mean and median of the growth rates which are 13.82% and 4.82% respectively. The left column shows a scale of different Dividend Growth Rates ranging from 2% to 15% and the highlighted rates are representative of the different approximate rates represented in the JPM Dividend Data Summary above (Figure 8). Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! 5.1 Sensitivity. It was in line with a letter sent out by Harris stating that if a postmark was not present on an overseas ballot, it had to be thrown out. Regarding the first issue, the court ruled that, while Harris was generally entitled to deference in her interpretation of state laws, in this case the interpretation "contravene[d] the plain meaning" of the phrase "error in the vote tabulation" and so must be overturned. A CAGR formula considers the annual growth with a beginning and ending period and is a more accurate way of measuring returns. Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) The World Factbook. Further, counties and precincts with large black populations disproportionately had technologies where ballots would predictably go uncounted. How such recounts in the case at hand could be made to fit into the statutory scheme, which, as Harris interpreted it, contemplated a quick certification followed, if necessary, by an election contest during which a court (rather than the canvassing boards) would be empowered to correct errors. Nine other counties said that it was a possibility, while 49 counties said that they would not have counted reclaimable overvotes per the court's order. The Bush campaign subsequently appealed to the Supreme Court of the United States, which took up the case Bush v. Palm Beach County Canvassing Board on December 1. To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. In this constitutional system, the "will of the people" is an irrelevant abstraction. "[51], Although Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer said on November 9 that "Palm Beach County is a Pat Buchanan stronghold and that's why Pat Buchanan received 3,407 votes there",[52] Buchanan's Florida coordinator, Jim McConnell, responded by calling that "nonsense", and Jim Cunningham, chairman of the executive committee of Palm Beach County's Reform Party, responded, "I don't think so. The total number of undervotes and overvotes in Florida amounted to 3% of all votes cast in the state. Such explanations did little to lessen the sense of anger among black Democrats. rejected by the Florida Supreme Court in its ruling of December 8, 2000, the lightly populated counties of Gadsden, Hamilton, Lafayette and Union. A key feature of scenarios is that they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. The Scenario 1 and 2 median growth rates were calculated earlier using Monte Carlo simulations with values of 3.16% and 5.35% respectively. On December 8, the Florida justices, by a 43 vote, rejected the selective use of manual recounts in just four counties and ordered immediate manual recounts of all ballots in the state where no vote for president had been machine-recorded, also known as undervotes. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. 12. Figure 2. Dividend Scorecard (Seeking Alpha). On November 13 the Gore campaign and Volusia and Palm Beach Counties sued to have the deadlines extended.[13]. Numerous local court rulings went both ways, some ordering recounts because the vote was so close and others declaring that a selective manual recount in a few heavily Democratic counties would be unfair. Sensitivity Analysis. George W. Bush, et al., Petitioners v. Albert Gore, Jr., et al. 10. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. Subsequent statements by Lewis and internal court documents support the likelihood that overvotes would have been included in the recount. This represents a large right skew since there are such large values on the positive side which signifies that the mean is not likely to be as accurate as the median for inputs. Scenarios 15:16. The Monte Carlo simulation was ran through 5,000 iterations and the results show that a forecasted median and mean (3.16% and 2.96%) dividend growth rate can be expected into the long-term future. On November 11, it joined a group of Florida voters in suing in federal district court for a preemptive injunction to stop all manual recounting of votes in Florida. The recount was in progress on December 9 when the United States Supreme Court, by a 5 to 4 vote (Justices Stevens, Souter, Ginsburg and Breyer dissenting), granted Bush's emergency plea for a stay of the Florida Supreme Court recount ruling, stopping the incomplete recount. The fast-growth scenario somewhat overestimates current emissions, but when combined with a slightly lower climate sensitivity it provides an estimate of early-2000s warming close to observed values. Meaning of Sensitivity Analysis. It was anecdotal evidence at best, and local authorities argued persuasively that the police presence near a polling place was pure coincidence. The instructions on the sample ballots said "Vote every page". The Monte Carlo simulation for Scenario 2 show a much more normalized result (Figure 7). [21] Additionally, this Florida election produced many more "overvotes" than usual, especially in predominantly African-American precincts in Duval County (Jacksonville), where some 21,000 ballots had multiple markings, such as two or more choices for president. We have to believe that based on the vote totals elsewhere. Conservative writer Andrew Sullivan in a contemporaneous article:[61]. 5.1 Sensitivity. Sensitivity Analysis vs. We focus on value, cash flow, competitive environments, business strategy, macro-economics, descriptive statistics, statistical methods, and theorizing potential risk scenarios. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. 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