The discussion about when to use the Central Limit Theorem and the Law of Large Numbers (which is not a Law) petered out. Thanks. . (2014)3, "The Earths climate is changing in response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate matter in the atmosphere, largely as the result of human activities." Detection of non-climatic biases in land surface temperature records by comparing climatic data and their model simulations. There is a lot of debate about the global extent of the MWP, but the consensus is that warming peaked in different locations. We have been through this before Geoff. Yet many of the people and agencies who have handled this data have altered them by administrative adjustments, using methods that are not revealed, and then use the output in computer simulations designed to justify alarmist hypotheses about future weather and climate. One can agree with your words GCM have a tremendous near future in regional, initialised projections but can be neither precise or accurate in a traditional sense. the calculated with Planets Without-Atmosphere Mean Surface Temperature Equation and the measured by satellites are almost the same, very much alike. But I cant explain error estimation to Geoff. The study used global surface temperature records are ERA5-T2m, HadCRUT5, GISTEMP v4, NOAAGlobTemp v5, and the satellite-based lower troposphere global temperature UAH-MSU lt v6 record was added as well. Wind and currents, ice, cloud, biology interacting cyclically to produce climate change at many scales. Its the official handbook entry on the thing, Jim. Jan-Erik Solheim, Professor Emeritus, Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, Norway, Hot Talk, Cold Science is surely the most complete and insightful book on the convoluted subject of climate changeboth from a historical scientific perspective and a political game-like one. It can be converted to useful energy with the right technology. In due course I shall encourage you to add a category of man made, deliberately concealed. And did they have opinions on the factors involved with those two periods causing the changes in temperatures. I would not. There is also NOBODY, as far as I know, who has contradicted any of its obvious and totally mathematically correct conclusions. It likely is the biggest issue storm in history. To address this question, the Holocene records up to 8000 years before present, from several ice cores were examined. Two publications examining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) have recently been published in Climate Dynamics: Scafetta, N. (2022a). If internal model variability is also considered, the conclusion remains unchanged because, as the research clearly shows, 95% and 97%, respectively, of the medium and high ECS ensemble member simulations run hotter than all temperature records. The surface of Venus is far hotter mainly because its atmosphere is far thicker (meaning higher) than ours. Kesten C. Green, Senior Research Fellow, Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia; Co-Director, The Forecasting Principles; former Director, International Institute of Forecasters, Without a doubt climate change continues to be the leading social and scientific topic of our times. * Coral Reefs are Dying Because of Climate Change, Coal Pollution Can Be Seen Pouring From Power Plant Smokestacks, Greenland Ice Loss Will Cause Dangerous Sea Level Rise, Sea Level Rise is Accelerating Dramatically, The Global Temperature Record Says We Are in a Climate Emergency, The 130-Degree F Reading in Death Valley Is A World Record, Unprecedented Heat Wave in Pacific Northwest was Driven by Climate Change. 2, 2008 the Heartland Institute sought to challenge the idea that human activity was causing climate change by holding its own international conference on climate change. Anyone who has ruled out the sun as a source of climate change is clearly neither a climate scientist (whatever that is) nor a scientist of any kind, nor has a basic understanding of physics, as there is copious evidence that the sun is a critical driver of the entire system.. [103] In 2018, global emissions of human-produced CO2 were about 37 billion tons. Which was that you were wrong. Research Fellow David Legates is interviewed on his new, co-authored book, Any increases in CO2 concentrations across huge time spans (there have been a few) havent. Leaving aside some unknowns that will be understood in due course, is it not the case that catastrophic AGW is no longer a matter of scientific controversy, the warming has been largely natural, however, it does remain fiercely contested as a matter of faith to some and a vested financial interest to others? Most thought it wasnt cause for concern: water vapor, they believed, was already absorbing any long-wave radiation that might otherwise cause additional CO2 to exert a greenhouse effect. Anecdotally this has been the opinion since they were first produced. Proper citation depends on your preferred or required style manual. The Alarmists Win Again and Again on the Precautionary Principles because the people who disagree promote the same forcing and discuss nothing else. A 21st century prototype gas-cooled FMR by 2030? We can call Earth a Planet Ocean. https://watertechbyrie.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/rowlands-fig-1-e1612040479369.png. [177] President Obama, still in office at the time, called the agreement a turning point for the world that establishes the enduring framework the world needs to solve the climate crisis. [179], On June 1, 2017, President Trump announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement and ordered the federal government to cease all implementation of the agreement. His belief was that the number of sunspots would be indicative of the amount of the Sun's energy that is received by the Earth. A different episodedubbed Climategateuncovered emails from the Climate Research Unit suggesting unethical attempts to hide raw data and to prevent climate skeptics from getting published in top scientific journals. Since that time CO2 has fallen steadily and precipitously. 2015; meanwhile, 14% of Americans deny climate change is happening. It is loaded with facts and technical details but it is written in a manner that is accessible to the non-expert. If that is true, then isnt a significant portion of the post 1850 warming just a reversion back to the mean just a natural rebound? I only reply to those who seek to learn from my research at http://climate-change-theory.com. New 'oasis of life' filled with ravenous sharks is found hiding beneath Maldives ocean, See the face of an 18th century 'vampire' buried in Connecticut. Who knows exactly how much. I have thought about it Joshua. (So would I). The differences were close to normally distributed. Youre certainly entitled to disagree, but I have no intention to wreck anything. Climatology was a pretty small subfield of science in the early 1980s. Arctic Sea ice has recovered to 10th lowest. On both sides. . There is a wide acceptance among scientists that the Sahara transformed from a fertile grassland to a desert because of a change to the Earth's orbit. If they ever develop ultra deep drilling you could have an abundant energy source almost any place on earth. Earth is a smooth rocky planet, Earths surface solar irradiation accepting factor earth = 0,47 There is no limit they simply tend to cancel out over time. As contentious as the climate issue was and is, I was always impressed by Fred Singers gentle demeanor within that storm. javiers comment The most common opinion about the LIA in recently published research is that it was mostly due to volcanic activity.. This extends a long-term downward trend due to global warming. Economics can show committed environmentalists how they can better achieve their goals by recognizing fundamental economic principles such as the need to make trade-offs, to measure costs and benefits, and to take into account such economic concepts as discount rates and marginal costs. Like a replay of Barry Sanders greatest runs, some things are timeless regardless of hurricane or year. Frank H. Murkowski, U.S. Javier, or what about Egorova et al (2018). Funding and Study of data and history to learn more, understand more, and Funding and Study of other factors, with proper understanding and teaching is badly needed. 1. The ending is fantastic. It is an ethics situational time and priority problem. We both fail at times. [195], ProCon/Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc. Well done in having a look, saves me from having to do so. That suggests a nonlinear cloud nucleation effect. . Scientific evidence continues to show that human activities (primarily the human burning of fossil fuels) have warmed Earths surface and its ocean basins, which in turn have continued to impact Earths climate. Nature has had the advantage of using enormous pressures and temperatures over thousands of years to produce compact, high energy sources like coal. Thermometers are relatively precise the accuracy is affected by the proportion of latent and sensitive heat at the surface that changes with soil moisture. Most scientists are unaware of this so it is the logical thing from their point of view to rule out the sun. https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat509/book/export/html/648. That such simple statistics trips them up says it all. You told JamesS that you wanted to join the conversation. How so? Te = [ (1-a) S / 4 ] (K). Is this why every country is said to be warming twice as fast as the rest of the world? Commenters (apart from a couple like James Gorman) seemed too timid to offer a definitive answer about how to calculate uncertainty in different scenarios. J0shu@, 1f u have found the @nswer to the filter let us know. Remember? I doubt they will put them on show here. According to many peer-reviewed studies, over 97% of climate scientists agree that human activity is extremely likely to be the cause of global climate change. I have no intention to wreck anything. Im on the side of sophisticated analysis of these two different things by the BOM. You might point them to a recent talk by one of the leading scientists in the world on this subject, Willie Soon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyggw-x4K9I, As well as his recent paper with 25 other leading scientists How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2022/09/18/the-role-of-mathematical-modelling/#comment-211704, Joshua | September 29, 2022 at 8:52 pm | Now new research shows just how much forests have been bulking up on that excess carbon. New York Times prediction BUST: 1995 article cited climate experts warning most of the beaches on the East Coast of the U.S. could be gone in 25 years, The New Pause Lengthens to 8 years 1 Month, The Climate Crisis Isnt What it Used to Be, Open Letter to Global Leaders assembled at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, The Dangers of Low Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Increase in U.S. Wildfires Due to Climate Change, Climate Change Will Increase the Number and Severity of Tornadoes. A whole lot is built on that foundations. The last climate shift was in 1998/2001 for Gods sake. The average standard deviation of temperature was 0.98 0.27 oC. angech says Things cancel out over large series if there is a rule or law saying Singer, Legates and Lupo present extensively updated and expanded material on both aspects. Some material from contributors may contain additional copyrights of their respective company or organization. Geoff S Surface Temperature Record Reliable? https://www.cristos-vournas.com. Children need to be allowed to learn without being used as pawns in an adult political battle. The effects of climate change span the impacts on physical environment, ecosystems and human societies due to human-caused climate change.The future impact of climate change depends on how much nations reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Not that anyone else here has been rude enough to tell you. The stakes are enormous. The range of models in the latest IPCC opportunistic ensemble is shown in blue and yellow. I spent more than 3 minutes at your website. Mob grazing can make even cows both content and environmentally friendly. AGW on this blog, most of the time, is not referring to Advanced Global Warming but just Anthropogenic Global Warming, regardless of how quickly. Anyway a now deleted challenge to Javiers description seems to have got me a site ban, tragically. Looking at all the NOAA tidal gauge graphs showing no significant acceleration (plus studies) and reading countless papers that found evidence of LIA and MWP conditions in the SH finally pushed me over the cliff. In fact if the machine or algorithm is not working properly the random error might be the only true value ever recorded! http://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of-scientific-organizations.html, The following page contains information on what federal agencies are doing to adapt to climate change. The attack is global and has come through scientific organizations, national academies, interest groups, the media, and politicians. However, all the samples analysed in this study had well over 200 values, so the precision of measurement should have had secolittle influence on the results. Of course, this has a rather direct and dramatic effect on calculation of ECS. > The 800 comments distilled into two groups. Javier, how about Biktash (2017) Long-term global temperature variations under total solar irradiance, cosmic rays, and volcanic activity which concludes: It was shown that a large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the mechanism of action of TSI and cosmic rays (CRs) on the state of the lower atmosphere and other meteorological parameters. However, there has been a significant amount of research conducted since then to show that variations in the Sun's energy output have an impact on changes in Earths climate. [129] When Keeling began his measurements, atmospheric CO2 levels stood at 315 parts per million (ppm). This book presents an understandable and balanced review of the science that will leave readers with two conclusions; that our use of fossil fuels is remarkably benign to the environment and essential to the struggling global underclass, and that we have been greatly misled by those entrusted for sound environmental policy. One must wonder how those billions of dollars spent on climate change research based on such uncertain temperature numbers were ever allowed to go ahead. I already played my move. There are however, many physicists in their ranks, I am happy to say! Hot Talk, Cold Science is a complete, concise, factual and very valuable addition to the climate debate. Thank you for leaving my original reply to Joshua up. The report called climate change a global public health problem, stated that climate change impacts are already visible in every state, and concluded that human-induced climate change is happening now. [16] The report was criticized by some members of Congress, including US Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), who stated that we can all agree that natural variations in the climate are taking place, but man-made global warming still remains a theory. [157], In Nov. 2018, Volume II of the 4th National Climate Assessment was published. The CO2 standards set in 2012 required an annual 5% increase in fuel efficiency to reach 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. Mercury..325,83 K..340 K Tim Benson, The Heartland Institute - Ideas that empower people, Mark Steyn vs Michael Mann, Climate Change: The Fact, Scott Denning v. Roy Spencer Debate ICCC6, Research & Commentary: Data Shows Methane Emissions in Colorado Declined Significantly Despite Large Increase in Oil Production, Research & Commentary: New Report Details How to Strengthen America, Weaken Putin, and Make the World Safer Via Increased American Energy Production, Research & Commentary: Congressional Bill Would Block Federal Infrastructure Funds from Heading to States that Have Banned Hydraulic Fracturing, Alarmists Repackage Myth of Overpopulation Induced Catastrophe (Guests: Pierre Desrochers and Joanna Szurmak), POLITICO Awards Putin Top Spot on Their Green 28 List. Indeed, the study states, It is clearly evident that GT varies accordingly to TSI and opposite to CRs. 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Even cows both content and environmentally friendly deep drilling you could have an abundant energy source almost place., national academies, interest groups, the study states, it is an ethics time. By the proportion of latent and sensitive heat at the surface that with... Are unaware of this so it is an ethics situational time and priority.! Annual 5 % increase in fuel efficiency to reach 54.5 miles per by. Very valuable addition to the climate issue was and is, I was always impressed Fred!

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